LIANE HANSEN, host:
The killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces is aggravating already strained relations with Pakistan. His death is also raising questions from some lawmakers about the continued U.S. military engagement in Afghanistan.
Seth Jones is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he specializes in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism. He's the author of "In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan." And he's in our Washington studio.
Thank you so much for coming in.
Dr. SETH JONES (Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation): Thank you for having me.
HANSEN: You used to advise the U.S. military in Afghanistan on issues related to al-Qaida. Although it's only been a week since bin Laden was killed in that raid, what effect do you think his death will have on al-Qaida's presence in Afghanistan, given on what you know about the region?
Dr. JONES: Well, I think it's likely to have two impacts. One is they are watching what American forces do over the next several years. So if American forces begin to decline in numbers, I suspect they'll do what they have done for decades and that is look for areas of retrenchment. And that means pushing across the border back into Afghanistan, where they've lived sporadically over the years, I think that's what they'll do.
Second, I do think they'll seek revenge. And if they can get to American forces in Afghanistan, they will target American forces there.
HANSEN: Talk a little bit about the tenuous relationship right now between the U.S. and Pakistan and that alliance, especially since Pakistan is the main supply route for the U.S. military in Afghanistan. Should relations get more sour between Pakistan and U.S., what would be the implications of that for the troops in Afghanistan?
Dr. JONES: There are two reasons to be concerned if the relationship becomes even more strained that it is right now. One, is most NATO forces - especially U.S. forces operating in Afghanistan - an enormous chunk of supplies, fuel and other logistical supplies come through multiple different border crossings.
Second, the senior leadership of every major insurgent group, as well as al-Qaida, is located on the Pakistan side of the border. So deteriorating relations would, I think, undermine and make it much more difficult for the U.S. to target those sanctuaries.
HANSEN: You suggested that Pakistan didn't really share the same level of commitment in targeting terror suspects. Will that change now?
Dr. JONES: Well, I mean what I said was that recently Pakistan did not share the same interest in targeting senior al-Qaida leaders. They clearly shared some interest in targeting a range of militant groups that were threatening the Pakistan state. But their support levels for targeting senior al-Qaida leaders began to wane probably by about 2004, '05 and '06. And before that, they were actually very helpful in the capture of the range of individuals. Since then, they focused on what they view as more serious internal threats.
HANSEN: As you know, the death of bin Laden has opened a debate now whether the U.S. should begin to withdraw from Afghanistan, before the original July start date. Where do you stand on that issue?
Dr. JONES: I think the direction that the U.S. force levels are likely to go on any way is down. It's what the U.S. president has said. The debate I think is on the slope of that curve. There are some people who would like to hastily, in my view, withdraw U.S. forces. I think that is dangerous to do it too quickly for several reasons. One, is the al-Qaida structure continues to exist in Pakistan and along the Afghan-Pakistan border, where they're planning attacks. So that structure continues.
Second, I actually think over the last six months the U.S. and Afghan governments have actually made some progress in Afghanistan, especially in the war-torn south. So I dont think this is the time to hastily withdraw. But a downsizing is clearly in order.
HANSEN: What about negotiations with the Taliban? Is the environment right for that now?
Dr. JONES: Well, I think it's always helpful to open up dialogue and discussions. At the very least, the outside shot of a chance at a settlement would be a good one. This region, especially Afghanistan, has not seen a lot of negotiated settlements. I think the prospects right now are probably low for a range of reasons, including the Taliban still believes it's winning in Afghanistan - thats one.
Second, Im not convinced that a range of the senior Taliban leaders want a negotiated settlement on terms that would be acceptable to the Afghan government right now. That is, their view of what society would look like, the treatment of women; everything that we saw in the 1990s, I think would probably be unacceptable to the bulk of the Afghan government and its population.
HANSEN: Seth Jones is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of "In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan."
Thanks again for coming in.
Dr. JONES: Thank you.
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